GAME PICKS: WEEK 4

NIU is ranked for the first time since 2013. Huskies host Buffalo to open up the first weekend of MACtion.

MY 2024 RECORD: 81-28 overall (24-8 last week)

26-6 MAC (8-3 LW)

49-11 Top 25 (17-5 LW)

12-12 in additional picks (3-5 LW)

LAST WEEK: I realized that I really like to go out of my way to pick the games wrong sometimes. Seriously, Western Illinois over Illinois State? Florida over Texas A&M? Arizona over Kansas State?

This week is about making changes before the real season actually hits. This week, I don’t want to repeat past failures, because I’ve done enough of that. We’re going to grow this week by not trying to be the smartest guy in the room with these picks and just pick the right games. With that, I’m happy to say that this week’s picks will feature zero incorrect picks, and I’m looking forward to talking about this week’s record next week.

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MAC GAMES

#23 NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVER BUFFALO. The new-ranking Huskies currently don’t feel like anything that they remember from last decade, and that’s a major compliment. Same can be said for this year’s Buffalo squad compared to what it looked like under Maurice Linguist.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER BALL STATE. The first MAC game of the year begins at 1 p.m. (Eastern), and I’m obligated to watch some of it at least.

EASTERN MICHIGAN OVER ST. FRANCIS. I’m sure EMU fans would love for this one to feel like a gimme. I feel very confident that a lot of players who don’t normally play will get slightly more opportunities here, but the hope is that EMU won’t have to audition too many new starters because of injuries.

#10 PENN STATE OVER KENT STATE. What’s the funniest possible realistic outcome here without Kent State suffering anything half as bad as last week’s butt-whipping at Tennessee? 27-3? 19-8? 33-11?

#17 NOTRE DAME OVER MIAMI OH. If Notre Dame wins, there still won’t be an obvious reason for ND to be in the Top 25 but they’ll be #15 by Sunday afternoon. If Miami wins, Notre Dame has to come and join the MAC next season and host UMass as a punishment.

#25 TEXAS A&M OVER BOWLING GREEN. And here comes a ranked Texas A&M — ranked only to make Notre Dame look good. If this is a good enough game, this could only be the second-best win on TAMU’s schedule.

TOLEDO OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. MACtion’s non-conference game of the week of the year, and hopefully a preview of more to come. One day when WKU comes to the MAC we’ll enjoy games like this (and Middle Tennessee-Northern Illinois), but I’ll take a September tune-up for now.

KENTUCKY OVER OHIO. A MAC-SEC matchup that should happen once every seven years. Honestly, that’s how I feel about Kentucky facing about half of the MAC’s roster.

SOUTH CAROLINA OVER AKRON. Does South Carolina even waste a ‘Sandstorm’ on Akron this week?

TOP 25

#24 ILLINOIS OVER #22 NEBRASKA. The Friday Night Midwestern Values Bowl. Farmers vs. Laborers. People vs. Humans. Shirts vs. Quarter-zips. Runza vs. deep-dish pizza. Milk vs. Cheese. Cubs fans vs. probably more Cubs fans. Matt Rhule needs a loss like this for Nebraska to turn things around to go undefeated the rest of the way.

#21 CLEMSON OVER NC STATE. The ACC loves serving up bowls of Panic-O’s, but I’d probably think differently about the outcome of this one if it were being broadcast on the CW and not ABC.

#20 IOWA STATE OVER ARKANSAS STATE.

#19 LOUISVILLE OVER GEORGIA TECH.

#14 OKLAHOMA STATE OVER #12 UTAH.

#16 LSU OVER UCLA.

#13 KANSAS STATE OVER BYU. Never picking against my beloved Wildcats again until they give me a reason to not trust them. Oh BYU’s at home and they’re 3-0 so far? That’s real nice.

#11 USC OVER #18 MICHIGAN. Something that should’ve been finalized and solved months ago is finally done last week: Sherrone Moore finally signed his contract with Michigan. Now they can finally get to focusing on building a Big Ten winner, like finding a quarterback through the portal — a thing you can definitely do during Week 4.

SOUTH FLORIDA OVER #8 MIAMI. I will be brave enough to say that I don’t, and will not, trust Mario Cristobal over long periods.

#7 MISSOURI OVER VANDERBILT. The world’s biggest SEC game of the year. Not sure what Missouri and Nashville people bring to these sorts of events, but bring extra of whatever it is.

#6 TENNESSEE OVER #15 OKLAHOMA. The Hueppel Bowl should be a fun one. Can’t wait for Oklahoma to bring back Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray for the event.

#5 OLE MISS OVER GEORGIA SOUTHERN. I’ve got my money on Lane Kiffin not actually wanting the Florida job but doing a great job of making it seem like he’d entertain the interest.

#3 OHIO STATE OVER MARSHALL. Bucks by 40.

#1 TEXAS OVER UL-MONROE. Serious question here because I’ve been busy lately and haven’t had time to catch up on all the buzz. Who is Arch Manning?

EIGHT ADDITIONAL PICKS

My personal rule here: No boring picks. I’ll define that however I wish.

RUTGERS OVER VIRGINIA TECH.

MICHIGAN STATE OVER BOSTON COLLEGE.

SYRACUSE OVER STANFORD. Stanford losing is not fun. Stanford hopping on an airplane to go all the way to Syracuse, New York — where they’re currently an 8.5-point underdog — for its first-ever ACC game on a Friday just to fly all the way back home to not tell anybody where you’ve been and why would be *chef’s kiss*. Also, college football’s just better when Syracuse is 3-0.

JAMES MADISON OVER NORTH CAROLINA.

ARKANSAS OVER AUBURN.

SMU OVER TCU.

BAYLOR OVER COLORADO.

WASHINGTON STATE OVER SAN JOSE STATE. Jake Dickert forever?

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