GAME PICKS: WEEK 3
Being wrong about these games is awesome, you should try it.
MY 2024 RECORD: 57-20 overall (37-12 last week)
17-5 MAC (8-3 LW)
35-9 Top 25 (17-5 LW)
8-7 in additional picks (3-5 LW)
LAST WEEK: I don’t mind getting picks wrong when the results are super fun to still celebrate over. #25 Northern Illinois of course came away with the nation’s best upset of the year and none of it honestly has much to do with the Playoff that we’re still over three months away from actually seeing. What matters is that there was a giant spread where everybody and their mothers expected to see the gold helmets come away with a simple win over the lowly MAC squad.
Notre Dame’s coach, Marcus Freeman, said that his team fell for the ‘hype’ train and should’ve never found themselves falling for any of that noise in the first place. To me it sounds like we’ve reached a point where there’s a generation of current college players that either have or haven’t seen the classics. I’m not talking about Rudy, I’m talking about the classic made for my generation: Friday Night Lights.
“Hype is something that’s not for real. I’m all real.”
I went 37-12 last week, not good enough to earn a contract extension but it’s going to have to be good enough for this week. But let’s remember just how difficult picking games (straight-up or against the spread) is for both the pickers and the bookies in Vegas. According to statistician Brian Fremeau, closing line underdogs in FBS vs FBS games are 57-31 (.648) against the spread. I don’t care what year it is and I don’t care what the championship situation is supposed to look like at the end of the year, underdogs beating the spread at a 65% clip simply rocks.
Some other games I got wrong…
Kent State lost to St. Francis. Yikes.
#25 Clemson destroyed Appalachian State.
Illinois upset #19 Illinois, a reminder that maybe Lance Leipold’s best assistant coach over the years is currently at Penn State.
Temple lost to Navy, this is the last time I hope for the best out of the Owls.
Onto Week 3.
MAC GAMES
EASTERN MICHIGAN OVER JACKSONVILLE STATE. I smell a nail-biter coming to Ypsilanti, but I also don’t think Jacksonville State’s as strong as a team as it was last year. Assuming the EMU offense has more of a pulse this season, I don’t think this’ll be a repeat of last year’s performance.
#7 TENNESSEE OVER KENT STATE.
#10 MIAMI FL OVER BALL STATE.
TOLEDO OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE. Finally, a real test for the Rockets. Letting UMass hang last week might be a mirage. If the MAC’s going to take a big leap forward in the public’s interest after NIU’s Notre Dame victory, this should be the matchup to do it.
MIAMI OVER CINCINNATI. This is the last time the Battle for the Bell will be played. Last time forever? It seemed like that’d be the case, but I think it’s fair to say that this situation is very fluid.
In July, it appeared the football series between the University of Cincinnati Bearcats and Miami University RedHawks was coming to a halt. Miami administrators had backed out of a return game at Nippert Stadium in 2025, leaving Saturday's game at Yager Stadium in Oxford as the final scheduled meeting on either campus.
That left the 2026 scheduled game at Paycor Stadium as the possible swan song for the "Battle for the Victory Bell".
Now, The Enquirer has learned through UC sources the series could continue every few years. The plan would be a neutral site meeting. Recent such games were played at the Cincinnati Bengals stadium. Before Miami broke UC's 16-game streak in the series in overtime at Nippert last year, the teams had played in downtown Cincinnati in 2022 and 2018. Their last episode at Yager Stadium came in 2017…”
The RedHawks failed to score a touchdown in its season opener at Northwester. Now, off of an early bye week, I’m hoping for blood.
ILLINOIS OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN.
BUFFALO OVER UMASS. After a third MAC opponent on their final all-non-conference schedule, UMass will play an FCS opponent next week before taking on MAC team #4: Miami. Then MAC team #5 will be NIU. Eventually, there’s another FCS squad it’ll have to face. I think I’d cave-in and be a MAC school too if that was the best I could do with independent scheduling.
OHIO OVER MORGAN STATE.
AKRON OVER COLGATE.
WESTERN MICHIGAN OVER BETHUNE-COOKMAN.
TOP 25
#23 NEBRASKA OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
#20 ARIZONA OVER #14 KANSAS STATE.
#18 NOTRE DAME OVER PURDUE. If there’s a Top-25 game I expect to be wrong about, maybe it’s this one right here?
#17 MICHIGAN OVER ARKANSAS STATE.
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER #16 LSU.
#15 OKLAHOMA OVER TULANE.
#13 OKLAHOMA STATE OVER TULSA.
#12 UTAH OVER UTAH STATE.
#9 OREGON OVER OREGON STATE. If we’re lucky, this will also end up being a tied game into the 8-minute mark of the fourth quarter.
#6 MISSOURI OVER #24 BOSTON COLLEGE.
#5 OLE MISS OVER WAKE FOREST.
#4 ALABAMA OVER WISCONSIN.
#2 TEXAS OVER UTSA.
#1 GEORGIA OVER KENTUCKY.
EIGHT ADDITIONAL PICKS
My personal rule here: No boring picks. I’ll define that however I wish.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY.
EAST CAROLINA OVER APPALACHIAN STATE.
UNLV OVER KANSAS.
MEMPHIS OVER FLORIDA STATE.
NORTH TEXAS OVER TEXAS TECH.
TCU OVER UCF.
FLORIDA OVER TEXAS A&M. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
LET’S THROW AN FCS GAME IN HERE: WESTERN ILLINOIS OVER ILLINOIS STATE. Think last week’s Temple over Navy pick was wild? Western Illinois hasn’t won a football game since Halloween-time 2021. Who’d the Leathernecks beat in that game? That’s right: the Illinois State Redbirds.
