Toledo Week: Will EMU find the explosives?
EMU's run a lot of plays on offense this year, and that's been helpful for some of its defensive numbers.
Note: Moving forward, instead of my super-lengthy (2,000+ word) previews, I’m just going to boil things down into a By the Numbers segment. These segments were already included in the weekly game previews, but now the whole post is a By the Numbers-themed preview piece. If you enjoy this, it’d be cool if you shared this with a friend or two.
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By the Numbers
7 rush TD
Eastern Michigan running back Delbert Mimms III is second in the MAC with 7 rushing scores, and has 540 rushing yards on 132 carries this year.
8-17 at home
The all-time record numbers are pretty nasty to look at for the EMU side. Since 1999, EMU has beaten Toledo just one time per decade (2006, 2018, 2021) and the Rockets lead the all-time MAC series 38-13. With a 17-8 record at Rynearson Stadium, Toledo has owned EMU in its home games.
LAST 5 EMU WINS OVER TOLEDO
2021 — EMU 52, Toledo 49 (away)
2018 — EMU 28, Toledo 26 (home)
2006 — EMU 17, Toledo 13 (home)
1999 — EMU 20, Toledo 13 (away)
1998 — EMU 10, Toledo 7 (home)
14
Toledo has not had a losing season since 2009, which was Jason Candle’s first season on the Rockets’ coaching staff (as a slot receivers + tight ends coach). The 14-year streak Toledo is currently riding is fifth longest in the nation behind Boise State (26), Wisconsin (22), Oklahoma State (18), and Alabama (16*, depending on whether or not you care about Alabama’s five vacated wins in 2007).
15 pass TD
There are three quarterbacks who currently lead the MAC with 15 passing touchdowns: Ball State’s Kadin Semonza, Western Michigan’s Hayden Wolff, and Toledo’s Tucker Gleason.
Gleason, who has worked with his current offensive coordinator since at least high school, is playing like one of the better QBs in this conference with the third-highest QB rating (143.6), a completion percentage of 62.7%, and a TD-INT ratio of 15-6.
EMU QB Cole Snyder is one of two MAC quarterbacks with over 200 pass attempts and just two or fewer interceptions thrown this year (167/272, 1,822 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT). The other is Buffalo’s C.J. Ogbonna (113/201, 1,317 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT).
16.49% defensive havoc
By defensive havoc created (tackles for loss, fumbles, pass breakups, interceptions), EMU’s created slightly more havoc than it did last year. Not by total havoc plays (137 last year, 79 this year), but by percentage.
Last year’s EMU’s defense had a havoc rating of 15.22%, but this year EMU has a defensive havoc rating of 16.49%.
Is this to say the defense has improved from last year? No. Against the pass, EMU is still behind its old self with five fewer interceptions made (8 last year vs. 3 so far this year), and fewer pass breakups on a per-game basis (3.9 vs. 1.6).
The best reasoning I can instantly look at to help explain this is the amount of plays ran by opponents. EMU’s offense leads the MAC with 126 third-down plays ran, and that’s the complimentary football EMU has used for its defense, which is seeing fewer plays ran against them. Last year, opposing offenses averaged 69.2 plays per game. This year, opponents have averaged 59.9 plays per game — that’s basically one long series per game taken away from opposing offenses this year.
20+ yard plays
Looking at the list of players who have made some big plays for EMU this season. Tied for first place on the team are WR Terry Lockett and RB Delbert Mimms with 7 plays of 20+ yards apiece.
Quietly, at third, is redshirt-freshman Deion Brown with 5 plays of 20 yards or more. Four have come via kick return (of 29, 23, 23, 21 yards), and one by rush (26 yards).
20+ YARD PLAYS BY EMU PLAYER
7 — WR Terry Lockett Jr. (7 rec., 2 TD)
7 — RB Delbert Mimms III (6 rush, 1 rec., 2 TD)
5 — RB Deion Brown (1 rush, 4 KR)
4 — WR Markus Allen (4 rec.)
3 — RB Elijah Jackson-Anderson (2 rush, 1 rec., 1 TD)
3 — WR Oran Singleton (3 rec.)
2 — TE Max Reese (2 rec.)
2 — WR Zyell Griffin (2 rec., 1 TD)
2 — RB Joey Mattord (1 rec., 1 KR)
1 — S David Carter Jr. (1 fumble recovery, 1 TD)
1 — QB Cole Snyder (1 rush)
Narrowing the scope to offensive scrimmage plays only, EMU is seventh in the MAC with 32 plays of 20+ yards and Toledo is tied with Ohio for fifth at 32. Western Michigan has 39, Central Michigan has 36, and Bowling Green and Miamiare tied with 33 apiece.
By percentage, EMU’s offense pulls off plays of 20+ yards 5.06% of the time, which ranks #120 nationally. Toledo ranks #99 at 5.82%. On defense, EMU has shown to be more vulnerable with 20+ yard plays allowed 6.47% of the time (#67) than Toledo’s (4.73%, #109).
31 rec. TD
Toledo wide out Jerjuan Newton captured Toledo’s school record for career receiving touchdowns at 31, passing Cody Thompson (30) on the list. In total receptions, Newton’s 177 career receptions are 11th-most in school history. Eric Page still leads the way at 306.
95 rec., 1,313 yards, 13 rec. TD
These two aren’t the only weapons on this offense, but Newton + Junior Vandeross III have been on a roll this year, and are probably the most dominant 1-2 punch of receivers in the MAC. By yardage, Newton and Vandeross rank second and sixth in the MAC with 1,313 combined receiving yard, and have scored 13 total touchdowns this year.
196-117 vs. 70-38
Chris Creighton is in his 28th career season as a head coach with an all-time record of 196-117, and is 57-71 with Eastern Michigan. Jason Candle, who has spent all nine head coaching seasons with Toledo, is just three away from tying Gary Pinkel (73-37-3) on the all-time Toledo coaching wins list.
260-403
In the 10 previous matchups (all Creighton vs. Candle), EMU has been outscored 260 points to 403. Yeesh.
