The Drive to Detroit: Why Every Team Will (and Won't) Win the MAC
The case for (and against) your team.
Football season for the Mid-American Conference schools begin this Labor Day weekend. As a final conversation piece before we start focusing on our weekly game matchups, let’s look around the league and quickly state why your favorite MAC team will, and won’t, win this year’s league title. You’re welcome (and I’m sorry) in advance.
MAC West
Northern Illinois
NIU’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2021 (5-4 all-time in MAC Championships)
Why they’ll win the MAC
The Huskies were my preseason pick before the season, and I still feel pretty good about that prediction. NIU’s got everything I like to see out of a championship-level defense, and it’s hard to go against the defending champions with QB Rocky Lombardi taking snaps again for his senior year.
Why they won’t win the MAC
The losses of MAC Freshman of the Year Jay Ducker (to transfer), FB Clint Ratkovich (graduation), and WR Trayvon Rudolph (injury) might be a lot at once for the offense to replace and keep moving at their same speed. That, and Toledo figures out a way to upend the Huskies in DeKalb.
Ball State
Ball State’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2020 (1-1 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Even though Ball State fell flat of its expectations in 2021, the culture of its championship-level build is still there, and I think coach Mike Neu generally has things moving in a good direction. The team has a new QB to break in, but Neu’s got a good track record of getting young guys at that position peppered and ready to play. The weapons at wide receiver are about as good as you’ll see in this division, and Carson Steele’s breakout season as a true freshman is really worth banking on. Also, LB Brandon Martin, 2020 MAC co-Defensive Player of the Year, is still hanging around.
Why they won’t win the MAC
Ball State could be good, but is it really good? A lot hinges on new QB John Paddock to make a play when things break around him. If Ball State’s defense can’t stop the rushing attacks of NIU, CMU, or Toledo, then this team won’t have a shot at winning its own division.
Toledo
Toledo’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2017 (3-3 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
The Rockets winning the MAC would mean it stopped getting in its own way. No more special teams gaffes, no more dumb coaching mistakes. They need to show that they’re the most talented team in the league and win the games they should.
Why they won’t win the MAC
Toledo failed to play like a complete team in a lot of tough losses over the years. Sometimes the offense goes missing for some time. Other times it’s the defense that allows a big play. Toledo’s got it all, but it’s always just something with this team.
Western Michigan
WMU’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2016 (1-2 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Western Michigan, under Tim Lester, is generally good about self-scouting, and has an offense that finds big plays through its playmakers. But no matter how good WMU feels about its roster, the Broncos absolutely must start playing better against its divisional foes. Over the last 3 years, WMU is 6-9 against teams in the MAC West; WMU’s only West win last year came against NIU, but it was a week after NIU already clinched the division crown and rested its starters.
Why they won’t win the MAC
The Broncos might start playing better against the West, but it’s going to require this team to go 4-1 at worst in divisional play. I just don’t see that happening again, at least not this year.
Central Michigan
CMU’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2009 (3-1 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Central Michigan, under Jim McElwain. done a fine job of always having answers for when players leave or miss time in-season. RB Lew Nicholls returns as the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year, and the rest of the offense looks promising as well. As long as it can replace the guys it lost on defense through the portal, Central's going to be a tough out this year.
Why they won’t win the MAC
CMU might be tough to take down, so it'll require a one-possession loss or two in West play. CMU did lose a lot on defense through the portal, and this year's defense has the chance to slip.
Eastern Michigan
EMU’s last MAC Championship Game victory: n/a (0-0 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
The offense surges, the defense takes its necessary steps up at linebacker, and the Eagles finish the year +5 or so in the turnover margin.
Why they won’t win the MAC
The West is a brutal division to be in. Even with all the improvements, EMU has made for its team lately, they’re still not enough to keep up with the rest of the league’s improvements.
MAC East
Miami OH
Miami’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2019 (3-2 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Miami is the heavy favorite to win the MAC East, and if you love the combination of fourth-year QB Brett Gabbert, the skilled guys he’ll have to throw to and the state of Miami’s defense, then maybe you’re looking at Miami like a pretty safe pick here.
Why they won’t win the MAC
Miami’s got the talent to win out the MAC East, but it doesn’t always stay clean in East play. Miami lost to a bad Ohio team last year, and lost to Kent State in overtime by one point. If Miami puts itself into too many pressure situations on offense throughout the year, then this team’s chances of closing out close games probably don’t improve.
Bowling Green
BGSU’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2015 (2-2 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Bowling Green’s defense is the key here. Everything you might’ve heard or read about that side of the ball is actually better than that. Matt McDonald’s not perfect, but he’s experienced enough to know which bad decisions to stay away from, and somebody has an unworldly breakout season to help out on offense.
Why they won’t win the MAC
Head coach Scot Loeffler simply hasn’t proved to be the answer for Bowling Green (7-22 record), and seeing AD Bob Moosberger get the boot earlier this week means his job is much less secure than it was heading into the year. And it’s hard to argue that he’s been worth keeping around for this fourth year, but here we are.
Buffalo
Buffalo’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2008 (1-2 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Buffalo hit the transfer portal hard this offseason. New coach Maurice Linguist went shopping at basically every position to bring in a bunch of new transfers to his team as he enters his second year leading the Bulls. There are a lot of unknowns about the team, but if you’re a believer in Linguist’s eye for talent and the ability to pull in the talent to play on the MAC’s stage, then you have to buy into his first real try at building this Bulls roster.
Why they won’t win the MAC
It’s all still too new. Last year was a hard read for the first-time head coach with a late start with this team. Remember, he took the UB job in early May last year after Lance Leipold left for Kansas in late April. Almost every coach Linguist will face this year has been a head coach, or in that space, longer than he has.
Akron
Akron’s last MAC Championship Game victory: 2005 (1-1 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
The first year of the Joe Moorehead experience gets Akron to, at worst, a 5-3 record in MAC play and perhaps win the division outright. Akron does draw Miami OH at home after a trip to Kent State for the Wagon Wheel rivalry game. If Akron can get hot in mid-October and make some plays, then a couple of quick shifts could break the MAC East in a hurry.
Why they won’t win the MAC
It’s Akron. Year 1’s under any new head coach are always tough, and in the MAC, where resources are already tough to come by, Moorehead isn’t coming into his new already being born on second base. It doesn’t matter if he’s already liked and respected in this space, he’s still the head coach of Akron in the MAC. Things aren’t supposed to be easy.
Kent State
Kent State’s last MAC Championship Game victory: n/a (0-2 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Even though Sean Lewis's team fell flat against NIU in Detroit last year, the talent that's still there is good enough for the Flashes to make another run. Even with QB Dustin Crum off to the NFL, there’s still enough talent and know-how around the Kent State offense to keep this team afloat in the East race.
Why they won’t win the MAC
The Flashes have yet to prove that it can defend against the run, which is usually a prerequisite for me when it comes to winning a league title. Even though Kent State did beat NIU in the regular season last year, that ended up being a major factor in its MAC Championship loss.
Ohio
Ohio’s last MAC Championship Game victory: n/a (0-4 all-time)
Why they’ll win the MAC
Once every four or five years, Ohio ends up being really threatening in the MAC. Kurtis Rourke and his running backs will have to play really efficiently in the read option-run offense.
Why they won’t win the MAC
The talent between Ohio and the rest of the MAC will still be too much for it to overcome all year long.
