Central Michigan Week: Steer ship straight, avoid a midseason wreckage
EMU's intensity to be tested with in-state rivalry battle.
A winning record looks cool in October, but this isn’t the start to the season Eastern Michigan wants to see from itself.
Not this way.
Low intensity was felt in the St. Francis and Miami games, and the last thing EMU (4-2 overall, 1-1 MAC) wants to do is sleep-walk its way into an important rivalry stage in front of its homecoming supporters. Yes, EMU finished the St. Francis game with the first shutout of the Chris Creighton era. Yes, the Kent State road trip featured 50 points on the scoreboard for the win.
That doesn’t mean it’s time to turn on auto-pilot for the season and start cruising through the conference schedule.
If Saturday’s game is important at all to Eastern Michigan, they’ll want to bring the noise, and I don’t mean just the players and coaches either. Last week was a dud from the sidelines to the stands, and the team played into the energy it walked into the stadium with. Against the defending MAC champions — a must-win for the program trying to make it to the MAC title square for once — EMU treated it like a game that had no stakes whatsoever.
Could last week’s loss be the wake-up call these Eagles need to finish the season strong?
If this team can’t get excited about a game against Central Michigan (3-3, 1-1 MAC) in front of EMU’s own alumni players, coaching great Jim Harkema, and the homecoming crowd (pulses be damned), then it’s going to be a long MAC season.
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Preparing for the Chippewas
VIBE CHECK: CMU CAME UP SHORT AGAINST OHIO
Judging by the way Central Michigan finished its home game against Ohio last week, I’d say that CMU’s going to come in with a chip on its shoulder, no pun intended. Down 24-0 at halftime, CMU came back with three touchdowns in the second half (and one 2-point conversion). CMU had to replace QB Joey Labas after he came out of the game with an injury in the first half, and RB Marion Lukes shined in the final 30 minutes with three rushing scores, including 28-yard score out of a 4th & 1 situation with less than two minutes left in the game. CMU’s defense clamped down in the second half too with 332 yards given up in the first, but only 92 allowed in the second.
The Chips fell to 3-3 overall after the home loss (1-1 MAC) and have lost both of its games away from Kelly/Shorts Stadium this season. In the second week of the season, CMU got waxed 52-16 at Florida International. The following week, it lost 30-9 at Illinois. Three straight one-score games later, CMU’s looking like a MAC squad that blends in with the middle of the pack.
When CMU’s at its best, it’s been a squad that goes toe-to-toe with anybody in the MAC and has been the center (again, no pun intended) of attention from time to time. QB play has been, I guess, variable under McElwain, but the offenses really do let the strengths of its skill players shine when it gets the push up-front in the run game. CMU’s defense might not be the MAC’s preliminary #1 unit, but it’s solid at getting pressures (#8 in tackles for loss rate this year, 12.63%) and usually has an all-conference player or two lurking in its secondary.
McElwain helped turn this program around to a MAC championship contender in 2019 (lost to Miami 26-21), but hasn’t gotten this teams to that sort of level since 2021. CMU went 9-4 that year, but has gone 9-15 since.
So far this season, it doesn’t at least look like is CMU is built to run away with this conference (SP+ Rank #119, offense #112, defense #116), and I’ve got to think that this is a prove-it game for both coaching staffs. CMU and McElwain have already faced some public scrutiny with the team’s ties to Connor Stallions and the Michigan sign-stealing saga. No official word on what that relationship details, but the NCAA has reported evidence that he was on the sideline for Central’s season opener at Michigan State. Four weeks before the season began, QB coach Jake Kostner, a student assistant at Michigan from 2015-2018 and a graduate assistant with CMU in 2019 (left and came back in 2023), was let go.
Sure, CMU wants a win on Saturday. I think CMU wants more than a win, though. CMU’s probably ready to get people to re-direct everybody’s focus to, in their hopes, a good and entertaining football team. That’s going to have to start with, well, winning some games.
CMU’S QB TO MAKE FIRST START
Joey Labas, Central’s primary starting quarterback as an Iowa transfer, is out for the season and it looks like there’s going to be two #5’s with the last name ‘Jefferson’ on the field when CMU has the football.
For EMU, there’s captain and returning defensive end Justin Jefferson.
For CMU, it’ll be QB Tyler Jefferson, a redshirt-freshman who was listed as the team’s #1 quarterback in this week’s depth chart. In relief for Labas, Jefferson went 8 of 13 passing with 61.5% passing for 95 yards, and picked up 28 yards rushing, too. Jefferson was a talented high school athlete in Florida and now he’ll get a lot of say for how this Michigan MAC trophy game opener will go.
Of course, CMU’s second half was defined by Lukes’ rushing success, but the left-handed Jefferson looked comfortable leading CMU to scoring drives of 67, 56, 15, and 75 yards in those 30 minutes.
After Jefferson on the depth chart, there’s Bert Emanuel Jr., who, like Jefferson, is listed at 235 lbs. on the roster, and has been limited due to injury this year (72 total yards of offense), then there’s true freshman Jadyn Glasser.
CMU, to me, wasn’t going to be an offense that was going to win with a considerable showing in the pass game; McElwain’s offenses have generally won games when it has players that can pull off 1,000-yard seasons (see: Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis in 2019, Lew Nichols in 2021). Jefferson’s emergency relief outing showed that he was capable of executing a gameplan against a tough Ohio team. This week, it’s all eyes on him leading up to this rivalry setting.
CMU’S GOT SOME GUYS ON DEFENSE
Historically speaking, I generally trust Central to have guys who have breakout seasons with the team and help define the crew’s toughness.
Linebacker Jordan Kwiatkowski, CMU’s leader in tackles (49) and tackles for loss (8), is obviously somebody who keeps showing up for this defense. If PFF grades is your thing, you’ll be happy to know that Kwiatkowski is also the website’s highest-graded defender on the team (79.6), followed by LB Justin Whiteside (78.4), interior lineman Jason Williams (78.1), LB Dakota Cochran (76.4), and cornerback Da’Raun McKinney (74.8).
The cornerback trio of McKinney, Donte Kent, and Jaion Jackson is a pretty good one to have. Kent’s a two-time All-MAC recognized cornerback, so it’s pretty obvious that he’s a strength for CMU’s defense against the slot. McKinney is a second-year transfer from South Dakota and Iowa, and Jackson’s a true freshman from East St. Louis, Illinois. Combined, those three have 10 pass breakups on the year and lead one of the better passing defense units in the conference (189.2 pass yards per game).
Last year, Central had one of the MAC’s worst defenses against the pass (247.3 average yards per game, 8.2 per attempt), so they might be getting better in that regard.
CMU might look around and like what it sees from some of its players, but as a team they haven’t completely put things together. They lead the MAC in tackles for loss (48) and, like I said before, 8th nationally in TFL rate, which is great. The problem is that slacking in other important factors: only 3 takeaways to 10 turnovers, this is the only team in the MAC with more penalties (47) than EMU (43), and it ranks 81st in defensive available yards percentage while 123rd in net field position (per BCFToys.com).
Usually in these types of matchups, Central comes ready to play regardless of what the notes say. While the Chippewas haven’t looked completely clean through its first six games, there’s no reason to think this team can’t be a tougher out than what Miami brought to Rynearson Stadium last week. CMU hasn’t looked like it has played its A-game yet, and Eastern has to be prepared with a stronger gameplan Saturday.
Improving third downs may require improvements on first and second
EMU went 8 of 18 in last week’s losing effort to Miami. Percentage-wise, a 44% conversion rate is moving at a top-40 pace nationally, which is a pretty good spot to be in. Converting on third downs is important, but winning on first and second downs might need to start being a point of emphasis moving forward.
There’s only been one game this season where EMU’s offense has had fewer third-down tries than its opponent, and that was back in the season opener against UMass. And even then, EMU’s offense still had 14 third down plays. For the year, EMU’s 36 for 92 on third downs, tied for 19th-most nationally in attempts and 73rd in conversion percentage (39.13%).
For as improved as EMU’s offense is compared to last year, it’s still not an efficient one on the whole.
CMU’s defense hasn’t been great at forcing offenses into three-and-outs, (19/74, 26%), but EMU’s offense has been trending in the wrong direction since MAC play began, which may or may not be a glaring issue heading into this weekend’s rivalry opener. In Eastern’s first four games, EMU was limited to 6 three-and-outs over 37 drives (16.2%), but that’s gone up to 9 in 28 drives against Kent State and Miami (32.1%).
So what has to change against Central?
Simple and no-so-simple: Don't let CMU’s defense be an issue and win those early downs to establish long, scoring drives. In fairness, EMU’s offense did score on its two longest drives of the game against Miami (75, 59 yards), but it was otherwise punished into five punts, a fumble (would’ve been a turnover on downs on the fourth-down stuff), two turnovers on downs (EMU 7 of 17 on 4th downs this year), a field goal try (missed), and an interception.
By The Numbers
3-7 vs. CMU
Chris Crieghton has a 3-7 record against Central Michigan, and all three wins in the series came in home contests (2016, 2018, and 2022).
All-time, CMU has long-lapped EMU with a 64-31-6 record.
5 Michigan MAC wins
Eastern Michigan has won the Michigan MAC trophy five times since it began in 2005; CMU has won it six times, Western has won it eight times including last year’s series. If EMU wants to re-take the trophy from WMU, it’ll have to do so by sweeping the two rival schools this week and next month (Nov. 30). EMU has won the trophy in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2022.
6 rush TD
Delbert Mimms III (89 carries, 392 yards, 4.4 avg.) is one of two MAC rushers with a league-best six rushing touchdowns. The other is Western Michigan’s Jaden Nixon (82 carries, 505 yards, 6.16 avg.).
6.6 Y/A vs. CMU
This’ll be Cole Snyder’s third game against CMU having faced the Chippewas twice as a Buffalo Bull already. In his two games, Snyder’s teams have split the contests (1 win, 1 loss) as he was 39/64 passing (60.9%) for 423 yards (6.6 Y/A) with no touchdowns and, wouldn’t you now it, one interception thrown. Snyder is coming off of a Miami game where he threw his first interception with his new team, the first he’s thrown personally since Halloween last season.
32 MAC wins
In attendance for the homecoming game will be Jim Harkema, one of the three top coaches in EMU history. Harkema was EMU’s coach from 1983 to 1992 and finished with 32 MAC wins over his career, a mark that Creighton has found himself tied with. There wasn’t a MAC Championship game formed yet, but Harkema and his 1987 EMU team was named league champions when it finished with a 10-2 overall record, 7-1 in MAC play. That one loss: a road loss to CMU, a 16-6 final score.
41-57 overall
Over his ten seasons leading EMU, Harkema finished with a 41-57 overall record. Central Michigan, sad to say, usually had the better of Harkema’s teams at Eastern. Harkema went 1-6-2 against CMU.