Akron Week: History Unkind to EMU After Big, Comeback Victories
If EMU wins this weekend to become bowl eligible for the seventh time in 11 years, it'd be the first time EMU won six games in eight games since 1989.
Note: Moving forward, instead of my super-lengthy (2,000+ word) previews, I’m just going to boil things down into a By the Numbers segment. These segments were already included in the weekly game previews, but now the whole post is a By the Numbers-themed preview piece. If you enjoy this, it’d be cool if you shared this with a friend or two.
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By the Numbers
0-4 week after big comeback wins
Let’s start with a downer for the traveling crowd. Eastern Michigan (5-2 overall, 2-1 MAC) is coming off of a dramatic, comeback win over Central Michigan. EMU faced an 18-point hole in the fourth quarter, then responded with a 22-point swing and walked away winners in the rivalry match.
Now, EMU faces Akron (1-6, 0-3 MAC) on the road, but this team is also up against the history books. EMU’s had four larger comeback victories before, but has never won the game after its big comebacks.
1976 — EMU was down 24-0 before it came back to beat Central Michigan 30-27. The next week, EMU lost at Illinois State 14-6.
2010 — EMU trailed Ball State 28-7, won 41-38 in overtime. The next week, lost at Virginia 48-21.
2016 — EMU trailed Ball State 21-0, won 48-41. The next week, EMU lost vs. Northern Illinois 31-24 (OT).
2000 — EMU trailed NIU 32-12, won 39-32. The next week, EMU lost at Central Michigan 35-30.
+6 / -6 in turnover margin
Turnovers: they’re important. Sometimes they help you win, other times they can be wasted away. Either way, nobody’s going to say ‘no’ to a free possession for their offense, and these two teams are playing like opposites in this category. Akron is -6 in the turnover-takeaway ratio (7 takeaways, 13 turnovers) for the year while EMU stands at +6 (11 takes, 5 T.O.).
7 in 11 (in 8)
What’s immediately at stake for the Eagles? While a win at Akron wouldn’t everything, it’d give EMU its sixth win of the year, which means it’d be bowl-eligible once again. If EMU can reach a 6-2 record after this game, it’d mark the seventh bowl-eligible season for the Eagles in Chris Crieghton’s 11 seasons as head coach — and would be the fourth bowl season in a row (six in a row if we ignore the Covid-shortened 2020 season).
While EMU being regulars in bowl games has been something fans have grown to get used to, a win this Saturday would mark the team’s fastest mark to bowl eligibility. EMU has previously reached six wins after 10 games in the 2022 and 2016 seasons, needed 11 games to hit six wins in 2021, 2019, and 2018, and needed all 12 regular season games to reach six wins last year.
It wouldn’t be the fastest EMU has ever reached six wins in a season, though. Since joining the MAC, EMU has reached six wins through its first eight three times: 1977, 1987, and 1989.
13th in net field position
By BCF Toys, EMU’s field positioning has been nothing short of great. On average, EMU’s offense starts from its own 32-yard line (68.2 OFP, 21st nationally) while the defense tends to start its series from the opponents’ 27 (73.3 DFP, 24th).
Offensively, getting the ball in opponents’ territory has proven to be a way EMU can sniff out a victory. Of its 17 possessions that started on the opponents’ side of the 50-yard line (excluding end-of-game, kneel down drives but still including two overtime drives starts), eight drives have finished with touchdowns, four ended with field goals (two in OT vs. Jacksonville State), and five ended with the ball going back to the other team (two punts, two fumbles, one turnover on downs).
15 of 18 from 3
Jesus Gomez had a loud start to the year, highlighted by putting his name atop of EMU’s all-time kicking records with the school’s all-time Long of 57 yards and another 50+ yarder made at Washington, and is currently leading the MAC with 15 field goal makes this season. Swinging at an 83.3% clip (15/18), Gomez is already seeing a better season out of himself this year than he had last year when he was a 75% kicker (12/16).
32 TD, 35 INT, and over 1,100 pass attempts
For better or worse, Akron’s offense will put the ball in the air. Since Joe Moorhead took over as Akron’s head coach in 2022, no MAC team has thrown the ball more than his Zips. Under Moorhead’s leadership, Akron’s offense is 733 for 1,172 passing (62.54% - #2 in MAC) for 7,345 yards (#3) with 32 TD (fewest) and 35 INT (most).
33 MAC wins
Creighton made school history last week with the team’s comeback victory against Central Michigan. Passing Jim Harkema on the all-time conference victories list, Creighton won his 33rd MAC game to be the all-time program leader.
Creighton holds a 57-70 overall record as EMU’s head coach (33-48 MAC) with an all-time head coaching record of 196-116 over 28 seasons at four programs (32-9 at Ottawa, 63-15 at Wabash, 44-22 at Drake).
36th matchup
This will be the 36th all-time matchup between EMU and Akron. The Zips hold a 19-16 advantage, but EMU is riding a 4-game win streak.
LAST 7 EMU-AKRON MATCHUPS
2011 (home) — EMU 31, Akron 23
2014 (away) — Akron 31, EMU 6
2015 (home) — Akron 47, EMU 21
2018 (home) — EMU 27, Akron 7
2019 (away) — EMU 42, Akron 14
2022 (away) — EMU 34, Akron 28
2023 (home) — EMU 30, Akron 27 (2OT)
Akron 46.24% third down defense
Eastern Michigan runs a lot of plays on third down — tied for 8th-most third down plays ran this season — just not always to perfection. EMU’s 38.53% conversion rate on third downs is only good for 82nd nationally, but Akron’s defense is vulnerable to giving up long drives (112th in defensive drive success rate, per BCFToys.com). On third downs, Akron’s defense has let the chains move nearly half the time (43/93, 46.24%), the 124th ranked defense in this category.
57-51 record for Moorhead
Joe Moorhead gets a lot of respect for the offenses that he’s been able to display at Penn State, Mississippi State, and even Oregon. Now he’s getting respect for, well, enduring the job that he signed up for: to be the head coach for Akron. Through his 2 and a half seasons spent leading the Zips, his teams haven’t had much more success with 2-10 seasons in 2022 and 2023, and is off to a 1-6 start this year. Moorhead is 5-26 leading the Zips, which has sand-bagged his all-time career record, now standing at 57-51 in nine seasons (four at Fordham, two at Mississippi State, three at Akron).
